Points of Interest ©

Dissecting Jobs Report from Last Week
May 12th, 2010 10:53 AM


•  For a better understanding it's always good to look "under the hood"...

Last Friday's jobs report indicated there were 290,000 new jobs added with expectations that there would be 180,000.  On the face of it, that looks like great news.  But, as with anything reported by the someone other than yourself you have to dig into the details.

Of those 290,000 new jobs, 66,000 are temporary census jobs.  Another 188,000 of them were due to the government's hedonistic adjustments due to assumed "birth" and "death" of new businesses.  That makes net job creation somewhere around 36,000 (290,000 - 66,000 - 188,000).  No where near expectations.

Now, no where have I seen it discussed whether expectations figure in the temp census jobs and the Bureau of Labor Statistics "fudging" the numbers.

Keep in mind, our economy has to create 200,000 new jobs a month just to keep up with new and returning entrants to the job market.  Things have definitely "picked up".  But, we have to ask ourselves will we be able to sustain that level of increase with the reduction in government outlays?


Posted by Stephen A Myers on May 12th, 2010 10:53 AMPost a Comment (0)

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Average Credit Score Up on Loans Purchased by Agencies
May 27th, 2010 2:49 PM


•  The average FICO score on single-family loans purchased by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac now stands at 750--up from 715 on purchases during 2006 and 2007, the two years that account for most of the GSEs' credit losses.

Average credit score 750?  That's very high and although typical of most of MetFund's clients it's hard to believe that's the average being bought by Fannie and Freddie.

•  Being entertained by an article on the TheDailyAdventure.com dealing with job searches and career choices.  The title of the article is Odd Jobs.


Posted by Stephen A Myers on May 27th, 2010 2:49 PMPost a Comment (0)

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Yield on 10 year Treasury comes within a hair of its 52 week low
May 26th, 2010 12:05 PM


•  The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury dove yesterday morning, coming within a hair of its 52-week low of 3.1%.  But by the end of the day we were receiving price increases from our lenders.  The european problem is not fixed and the new home sale's report was juiced by the expiration of the tax credit.  Single-family existing home sales jumped 7.4% in April following a similar rise in March as buyers rushed to meet the deadline for a federal homebuyer tax credit.  If you didn't grab a lower rate you may still have the opportunity in the future.  BUT DON'T WAIT TO START!  Get the process rolling.

•  If this is supposed to be an employment-led recovery, then it's going to be a long, slow slog from the bottom, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association's chief economist.

•   Home prices fell 3.1% in the first quarter on a seasonally adjusted basis from the first quarter of 2009, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency's house price index.  This is slowing from previous quarter's rate of drop.  Perhaps a kind of stabilization is in the cards...

•  Defaults on multifamily (apartment) mortgages held by U.S. depositories climbed to a record 4.6% in the first quarter, almost twice the year-earlier level, as more borrowers failed to repay loans in a timely fashion, according to Real Capital Analytics Inc. Commercial real estate is still feeling the pinch.

•  The Mortgage Bankers Association's chief economist is hopeful that last week's run-up in the Libor index could be the spark needed to light a fire under the refinancing sector.  It's unfortunate, but bad news is good for mortgage interest rates.  The calamity in Greece and now the problem with banks in Spain prompted this latest mini refi boom.

•  If there seems to be a lot of crosscurrents and conflicting data there are.  Expect the unexpected.  The future remains uncertain.  But we all have to live somewhere and the tax man will give you a subsidy for that mortgage interest expense.  Now may not be the time to overreach but it is a time you can act with rates this low, a time to act sensibly.  If you haven't been able to save for retirement yet, how do you expect to with a bigger mortgage?


Posted by Stephen A Myers on May 26th, 2010 12:05 PMPost a Comment (0)

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Why Does Warren Buffet Praise Lloyd Blankfein of Goldman Sachs?
May 11th, 2010 2:33 PM

•  We wondered when someone would question Warren Buffet's love affair with Goldman Sachs and whether "the lovable, good ol' Uncle Warren strumming his cute little ukulele, ostensibly supporting reform" would be willing to look the other way when it came to making money.  We always held "the oracle from Omaha" in the highest regard for his ethics and willingness to publicly call derivatives "weapons of financial mass destruction."

As Paul B Farrell on MarketWatch says it now seems Buffet may be in denial regarding the greedy Wall Street culture that got America into its current mess :

  • Praising Moody's "business mode," and by inference all rating agencies that blindly rubber stamped Wall Street's toxic debt, setting up the last meltdown;

  • Defending Goldman Sachs bad behavior despite the fraud suit and a possible criminal indictment (while hiding his own conflicts of interest as a big investor in both Moody's and Goldman);

  • Praising Goldman's CEO Lloyd Blankfein ... by far Wall Street's greediest fat-cat banker who paid himself $68 million of his stockholders profits last year;

  • Defending Goldman with a bizarre argument that Goldman is no more guilty than the other Wall Street banks, a tacit approval of the bad behavior of all Wall Street banks in the Goldman Conspiracy;

  • Worse, ol' Uncle Warren also tried deflecting attention from Wall Street's corrupt business model by blaming government regulators for the meltdown, another example of Uncle Warren's blind denial, ignoring the fact that in the past year Wall Street spent over $400 million on lobbyists and campaign cash to make absolutely certain regulators, Congress and the Obama team all played along with Buffett's songs that guarantee Wall Street controls Washington regulators;

  • Ironically, all this comes from a man who once lectured Congress on "Moral Integrity: I want employees to ask themselves whether they are willing to have any contemplated act appear on the front page of their local paper the next day, read by their spouses, children, and friends ... Lose money for my firm and I will be understanding; lose a shred of reputation for the firm, and I will be ruthless".

Read the whole story entitled Buffett defends Goldman, joins greed Conspiracy.

It is said that pointing your readers to another web site is not a good strategy.  There are just some bits of information and certain points of view we feel are too important to not share even if they reside on another web site


Posted by Stephen A Myers on May 11th, 2010 2:33 PMPost a Comment (0)

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Housing Bubble or Lack of Transparency
May 5th, 2010 7:16 AM


The latest quote from Alan Greenspan being made much of around the web is the following:

We run the risk, by laying out the pros and cons of a particular argument, of inducing people to join in on the debate, and in this regard it is possible to lose control of a process that only we fully understand.

Too many are saying that these words demonstrate Greenspan tried to stop the debate on the housing bubble.  Now, we like Greenspan as a whipping boy as much as anyone but this just isn't true.  Let's look at the quote in fuller context:

Let me first follow up on your transparency assessment.  I think Cathy Minehan has raised an interesting point.  I would say this: We run the risk, by laying out the pros and cons of a particular argument, of inducing people to join in on the debate, and in this regard it is possible to lose control of a process that only we fully understand.  We have a ratchet in here where, if we were to move forward, we can’t go back.  So the concept of transparency is a very important concept but one that should be approached with a recognition that we cannot move back and forth on it.  I’m a little concerned here that by raising certain issues we may not be able to backtrack.

Hiding the housing bubble?  No.  Perhaps only within the larger framework of the Fed's lack of transparency.  The discussion is saying that once the Fed begins discussing it's own transparency, it has to be more transparent. 

Not sure which is more unsavory.  Hiding the housing bubble or being so opaque that no one including regulators can tell what's going on.

Reps Alan Grayson and Ron Paul have cosponsored the amended Federal Reserve Transparency Act of 2009 (H.R. 1207).  Its Senate version, introduced by Senator Bernie Sanders (Ind.-VT), is called the Federal Reserve Sunshine Act of 2009 (S. 604), and it has 32 cosponsors.

If you believe that the privately owned Federal Reserve should be accountable to all US taxpayers and citizens please let your elected representatives including the White House know.


Posted by Stephen A Myers on May 5th, 2010 7:16 AMPost a Comment (0)

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