Points of Interest ©

US is facing a "truly extraordinary slump" says a well-known economist
November 20th, 2009 10:25 AM


No one is really questions that the stabilization of the US economy.  But for many who have lost their job or are facing foreclosure this is meaningless.  Even though stabilization is here the economy is described as remaining weak.

University of Texas professor James Galbraith says it's going to take a very long time for the U.S. to recover from a "truly extraordinary slump.  Galbraith says. "There's very little sign the benefits that are being felt on Wall Street will be felt in the broader country anytime soon."

I believe the word recession is now a misnomer and that the weakness is a symptom and not the disease.  The curse was cheap capital and the willingness to create too much debt.  Until we complete this period of debt destruction the economy will remain weak.  The danger, it seems to me, is that we try to bypass the process by moving debt from the private sector to the government's books.

•  The new first-time homebuyer tax credit extension is in place and ready for action on December 1.  It is being joined by a tax credit for move-up or move-down buyers.  Certain time and income restrictions apply.  For more details see our New Homebuyer's Tax Credit.

•  OCC Calls for Worldwide Ban on Pay Option/Negative Amortization Loans
Comptroller of the Currency John Dugan said regulators worldwide should prohibit lenders from making payment-option adjustable-rate mortgages and other negative amortizing products. 

We disagree.  If they are done as full documentation loans with substantial equity required from the borrower these loans serve a purpose for a percentage of borrowers who have uneven, lumpy income such as commissioned salespeople.

•  Single-Family Starts Drop 6.8% as Multifamily Plummets 33%
Single-family housing starts dropped 6.8% in October from the previous month while multifamily starts plummeted 33% to the slowest pace on record.

•  Counseling, Favorable Loan Mods Seen Aiding Struggling Borrowers
Struggling borrowers are less likely to lose their homes if they take advantage of housing counseling services and they receive more favorable loan modifications than other borrowers, according to a NeighborWorks America-commissioned study.


Posted by Stephen A Myers on November 20th, 2009 10:25 AMPost a Comment (0)

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New HUD-1 Settlement Statement and Good Faith Estimate Form
November 24th, 2009 3:28 PM


•  Housing and Urban Development (HUD) has recently released the new versions of the Settlement Statement (HUD-1) and Good Faith Estimate (GFE) forms.  You can find them at the following links:

The HUD-1 Settlement Statement 

The new Good Faith Estimate

The settlement statement is now three pages long and remains in the legal size format.  The new GFE is also three pages but is letter size.  We are developing a page to review each and their changes.

•  HUD-IG Investigating Dozens of Reverse Cases
"Several dozen" of the 1,200 to 1,500 fraud investigations currently underway within the Department of Housing and Urban Development's Inspector General's Office involve home equity conversion mortgages, a group of reverse mortgage specialists meeting in San Diego were told.

  FHA Insuring Higher Quality Loans
Credit scores on FHA single-family loans have risen steadily over the past three years with the average score reaching 689 at the end of September, a 10% improvement from a year ago.

  NRMLA Close to Naming Firm Alleged to Be Violating Its Policies
The National Reverse Mortgage Lenders Association is in the final stages of "publicly naming" an overly aggressive third-party lead generation company which has consistently violated the group's ethics and standards policies.

  House OKs Amendment to Reduce Risk Retention Requirement
The House Financial Services Committee has approved an amendment that cuts a 10% risk retention requirement on sales and securitization of mortgages down to 5%.


Posted by Stephen A Myers on November 24th, 2009 3:28 PMPost a Comment (0)

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In Honor of the Brave Men and Women of Our Armed Forces Now and Past
November 11th, 2009 11:13 AM


•  Happy Veterans' Day and a big thank you to all who have served our country and defended our liberties.

•  All the banks and lenders are closed today as well as the bond market.  But, MetFund is here and available for you.


Posted by Stephen A Myers on November 11th, 2009 11:13 AMPost a Comment (0)

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Amazing Mortgage Tales and Other Stories 20091109
November 9th, 2009 1:35 PM

This past week found a number of surprising and unusual events and stories passing our eyes.  Some never made it to the evening news, some were hoaxes which generated great deals of interest and as always there are some that we need to look below the top layer.

In no particular order we present the following:

President Obama is Snubbed by Russian Leaders

On Thursday morning I received an email with a video embedded.  Attaching the video instead of directing someone to a web site with a link indicates this person was hard at work to make this particular clip infamous.  It purported to show President Obama walking through a receiving line with President Medvedev of Russia.  President Obama extends his hand to each of the Russian dignitaries who refuse to shake his hand.

I was outraged that an American president could be shown such disrespect in such a public setting.  Where was the news coverage?  Much to my relief the clip was shown to be a hoax.  Perhaps the most disturbing part was the accompanying text of the email which somehow tried to blame the president for this faked snub of the leader of the free world.

Cat Fighting Gets Ugly During Women's NCAA Soccer Game

As a colleague who forwarded this said, "It happens all the time in boy's sports.  Now we have equality so boys don't play fairer - girls play dirty".  All you need do is watch this clip to get the full flavor of how societal acrimony has entered every level of interpersonal interaction.  The pony tail yank is just awful.

Much to the relief of players everywhere she gets caught and shows up on ESPN.  I just wonder how she can say that these actions weren't indicative of her true character.  Don't actions speak louder than words?  Where was her coach?  Where were the refs?  Which leads us to perhaps this week's winner for the dismal and can you top this?:

Goldman One-Ups Gordon Gekko, Says Jesus Embraced Greed

In this updated story on Bloomberg (the original has been apparently deleted) Goldman Sachs’s Brian Griffiths Says Inequality Helps All.  Or a bunch of investment bankers go to church to explain why outrageous bonuses are the moral thing to do.

The story must have been rewritten after Matt Taibbi quoted the following from the original story:

“The injunction of Jesus to love others as ourselves is an endorsement of self-interest,” Goldman’s Griffiths said Oct. 20, his voice echoing around the gold-mosaic walls of St. Paul’s Cathedral, whose 365-feet-high dome towers over the City, London’s financial district. “We have to tolerate the inequality as a way to achieving greater prosperity and opportunity for all.”

via Profit `Not Satanic,’ Barclays Says, After Goldman Invokes Jesus – Bloomberg.com.

To see the rest of Taibbi's invective and understand how ludicrous this is please click on greed is love and taking is sharingJust in case you don't here's an excerpt:

"On the other end of the spectrum, not nearly as evil comparably but still pretty bad, are people like this clown from Goldman.  They lie to themselves and think up elaborate reasons to do the bad acts they were already hoping to do anyway.  Some day, when historians finish peeling back all the different onion-layers of this financial disaster we’re living out right now, they’re going to find at the heart of it all this social Darwinist mantra wherein a very small group of overeducated twerps agreed to believe that stealing every last dime they could get their hands on was something other than what it looks and sounds like to the rest of us.  That protective delusion was the first of the many luxuries they bought with all the money they stole, and see if it isn’t the last they agree to give up.  What a bunch of assholes!"

Payrolls in U.S. Probably Fell at Slower Pace, Joblessness Rose

The headlines as measured by the establishment survey said unemployment was down by 190,000.  Slightly worse than forecast.

I see that the number of unemployed actually soared by 558,000 to 15.7 million, as measured by the household survey.  The establishment survey polls larger businesses; the household survey actually calls individual households.

Furthermore, the establishment survey makes seasonal adjustments.  If you don't seasonally adjust the number, the actual change in unemployment for October was 641,000, or about 450,000 more than the seasonally adjusted number.  Yikes!

And the Bureau of Labor Statistics added 86,000 jobs that they simply guess were created through the so-called birth-death ratio.

The total (U-6) employment rate is at a record high of 17.5% (this includes those who are part-time for economic reasons).  There are now over 10.5 million people who have lost their jobs since the beginning of the downturn.

They say that the worst news comes at a bottom.

It's becoming more difficult to tell what is real. 


Posted by Stephen A Myers on November 9th, 2009 1:35 PMPost a Comment (0)

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Reality Check on Our Welcome News
November 2nd, 2009 7:37 AM

One of my favorite commentators is back with some thoughts about the recent "welcome news".
 
To believe the media, the recession is over.  And, to quote Larry Summers, the GDP report is "welcome news".
 
Don't get me wrong, I would really like to believe that the recession is over and that the GDP report is a positive.  But a few thoughts:
 
First, I would not underestimate how much fourth quarter organic growth was represented in third quarter GDP.  Between cash for clunkers and the housing tax credit there was enormous demand pulled forward.  At the same time, I would remind Minyans that an equal amount of effort has been taken by Washington to push into the future as much bad news as possible in the banking sector through things like loan modifications.
 
To put it simply, the US has taken a page out of Doctor Dolittle and our third quarter was the economic equivalent of the Pushmipullyu - two quarters of good with no bad.  And listening to CNBC last night describe how retailers are launching Black Friday sales this weekend suggests that we are redoubling our demand acceleration efforts into as many areas of commerce as we can.
 
But one of these days tomorrow will come.
 
And I would remind Minyans that every earnings report you've read over the past three weeks represents the best 3.5% GDP can offer.  And yet revenues consistently fell short of expectations.  And, looking at September quarter end loan delinquencies, there has been little to no improvement from the second quarter.
 
For what its worth, GDP is the past and unemployment is the future.  And while all of Wall Street celebrated last quarter's GDP growth yesterday, everyone forgot the 500,000+ new unemployed.
 
How long the Federal Government can pull the strings on our Marionette Economy is anyone's guess.  But like "revenue recognition" in the private sector, GDP "recognition" is all in the timing.
 
But to my ears, our Pushmipullyu economy is speaking loud and clear:  Air pocket ahead.
 
                        ~  Minyan Peter   Minyanville.com

Pessimism?  Cynicism?  Simply a desire and need to be realistic.

Posted by Stephen A Myers on November 2nd, 2009 7:37 AMPost a Comment (0)

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